Abstract
The prior chapter focused on technology sensitivity analysis from a primarily functional and parametric perspective, for example, “How much % improvement in variable x is needed until the figure of merit J at the mission or product level becomes feasible?”. This chapter now adds considerations of form, that is, physical components, software, and interfaces when integrating or “infusing” a new technology into an existing or future system. We ask the following questions: “How much effort is required to infuse a new technology?” and ultimately, “Is it worth it?” (This chapter is mainly based on the following paper: Suh, Eun Suk, Michael R. Furst, Kenneth J. Mihalyov, and Olivier de Weck. “Technology infusion for complex systems: A framework and case study.” Systems Engineering, 13, no. 2 (2010): 186–203, slightly edited and reprinted with permission.)
Technology-based companies in today’s competitive environment constantly need to develop new technologies and infuse them into their line of products to stay ahead of the competition (see Chaps. 7 and 10). Most new technologies only deliver value once they are successfully infused into a parent system. This chapter presents a systematic framework to quantify and assess the impact of technology infusion early in the product planning cycle. The methodology estimates the impact of technology infusion through the use of a design structure matrix (DSM) and the creation of a Delta-DSM (ΔDSM) describing the changes to the original system due to the infused technology. The cost for technology infusion is then estimated from the ΔDSM, and the potential market impact of the technology is calculated based on customer value, expressed through utility curves for key system figures of merit (FOMs). Finally, the probabilistic ΔNPV (net present value) of a newly infused technology is obtained using Monte-Carlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on an actual complex printing system (the baseline product is the iGen3 digital printing press manufactured by Xerox), represented as an 84-element DSM with a density of 3.7%, where a newly developed image-correction technology was infused into the existing product. The result shows that a positive marginal net present value, ΔNPV, can be expected, despite the new technology causing an invasiveness of 8.5% to the existing design. An example of diesel exhaust system aftertreatment technology is presented at the end of the chapter.
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Notes
- 1.
Design structure matrix (DSM) is a matrix that maps components to components by showing their interconnections. DSM is an increasingly popular method to assist with system design, see (Eppinger et al. 1994).
- 2.
A ΔDSM captures the “changes only” that are necessary to infuse a technology into a host product.
- 3.
Referred to by Downen as the relative value index (RVI) (Downen 2005).
- 4.
There is rarely only a single way in which a technology can be infused into a parent or host system. For example, there are different ways in which an aircraft jet engine can be integrated on an aircraft: C1 = mounted below the wing (e.g., A320, B737), C2 = integrated inside the fuselage (e.g., F/A-18), C3 = mounted alongside the rear fuselage (e.g., DC-9, MD-80) or mounted in the empennage (e.g., DC-10).
- 5.
A practical example is noise cancellation technology. Once the technology has achieved a level that is at the lower threshold of human hearing, about −9 dB SPL (sound pressure level), there is no value in improving the technology further, at least not for human ears.
- 6.
This, however, is possible by coupling TIA with a game-theoretic analysis or simulation as shown in Chapter 10 using the examples of engine power and acceleration for automobiles, as well as computing power and price for graphics processing units (GPUs).
- 7.
It must be acknowledged, however, that with the rapid deployment of the internet and digital technologies the market for printing presses overall may begin to decline globally and may eventually disappear (similar to the ice-harvesting industry described in Chapter 7). The use of paper production for printing experienced a global peak in 2013 and has been decreasing since then. However, the production of paper products globally including for packaging and hygiene is still increasing.
- 8.
Publicly available patent reference: https://patents.google.com/patent/US7424169B2/en
- 9.
As mentioned earlier, a technology infusion analysis can be coupled with the strategic gaming approach as highlighted in Chapter 10. Here, however we do not anticipate any competitor moves in the analysis.
- 10.
Monte-Carlo simulation in this example was performed using the Crystal Ball® software.
- 11.
See iGen4 product specification: https://www.office.xerox.com/latest/IG4BR-02U.pdf
- 12.
A method that has been proposed for estimating systems engineering effort is COSYSMO (The Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model).
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DSM of the Baseline Printing System
DSM of the Baseline Printing System
Figure 12.A1 shows the complete DSM representation of the baseline printing system. The DSM consists of 84 elements and shows physical connections (black), mass flows (red), energy flows (green), and information flows (blue) within the system. A summary of the required changes to the product is shown in Fig. 12.A2, grouped by the category of change
Baseline DSM of the iGen3 baseline printing system product (Xerox)
Summary of 87 changes and TII calculation due to new technology
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de Weck, O.L. (2022). Technology Infusion Analysis. In: Technology Roadmapping and Development . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88346-1_12
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